The same 11 weeks, this year vs. last. The benchmark says the conversion "decline" is mostly normal summer seasonality — but the recent traffic drop is a genuine year-over-year loss, not seasonal.
June conversion (~1.7%) is close to last June (~1.7–1.8%). Both years slide from ~2.4% in April to ~1.7% in June — the summer dip is normal. 2026 just runs a touch below 2025.
Spring 2026 ran +10–22% above last year. Then from late May, traffic dropped to −20–26% below last year. That reversal is real, not seasonal — it lines up with the May 29 traffic break.
The ~Jun 4 checkout-completion break can't be YoY-checked here — GA4's checkout event is unreliable across years. A Shopify 2025 export would settle whether it's anomalous or normal.
Weekly conversion rate, both years, same calendar period. The shapes are nearly parallel — both decline into summer. June 2026 sits modestly under June 2025, not dramatically. The low June number is mostly seasonal.
Weekly sessions, both years. 2026 led 2025 comfortably through mid-May, then crossed under at the end of May and fell well behind — the clearest signal that the recent traffic softness is a genuine loss, not the calendar.
| Week of | CVR 2025 | CVR 2026 | YoY | Sess 2025 | Sess 2026 | YoY |
|---|
Weeks aligned by position from Apr 1 (so 2025/2026 weekdays differ slightly). Last row is a 3-day partial in both years. GA4 property 310751693.
The scary within-2026 framing — "CVR down 27% since April" — is mostly the normal April→June summer slide. Last year did the same thing (3.0% early April → 1.7% mid-June). Against last year, 2026 conversion is only ~7% softer. So the conversion picture is "slightly below benchmark," not "broken."
This is where the benchmark earns its keep. 2026 traffic was ahead of 2025 all spring (+10–22%), then reversed hard in late May to −20–26%. That's not seasonal — both years should rise or fall together seasonally, and instead they diverged. The recovery work belongs in media/acquisition, and it's the bigger YoY story than conversion.
This uses GA4 (consistent across years for sessions & CVR). The one thing it can't benchmark is the checkout-completion break — GA4's checkout event is unreliable across years, so I excluded it. If you export the Shopify "Conversion rate breakdown" for Apr 1 – Jun 13 2025 (same as the 2026 one you sent), I'll overlay the full Shopify funnel — add-to-cart, reached-checkout, and completion — against this year and tell you definitively whether the June checkout drop is anomalous or just last-June-normal.
Source: GA4 (property 310751693), daily Apr 1 – Jun 12, 2025 and 2026. Sessions and transactions are GA4's reliable cross-year metrics; CVR = transactions ÷ sessions. Weeks bucketed in 7-day windows from Apr 1 each year. Add-to-cart deliberately excluded: GA4's add_to_cart event reads ~30% lower every week in 2026 including April — a tag/tracking change between years, not real behavior (a true 30% ATC drop would crater CVR far more than the observed 7%). Same GA4 cart/checkout-event unreliability documented in the Shopify funnel work; Shopify is the source of truth for cart/checkout steps.
Related: Funnel Steps W/W · Shopify Funnel / checkout break · The May Break.